Tri-Nation 2024/25, PAK vs NZ Final Match Preview

Big picture – Pakistan vs New Zealand is the ideal final match-up

It’s rare for a tournament final to be a dry run, but that’s almost what this Pakistan vs New Zealand game will be. There’s a trophy on the line in Karachi, five days before another Pakistan vs New Zealand game in Karachi – that is the big one, the opening game of the Champions Trophy. In that sense, when this tri-series was planned, this was the final that would have made the most sense, if you’d asked anyone bar, perhaps, South Africa.

New Zealand have comfortably been the team of the tournament so far, but Pakistan arguably come in on a bigger high, riding a wave after coming back from the dead to steal the second place on the table after an epic ODI chase against South Africa. The execution of the win was more satisfying than the fact that it happened. Two men in Pakistan’s middle order stringing together Pakistan’s third-highest ODI partnership – Mohammad Rizwan and Salman Agha put on a whopping 260 for the fourth wicket, masterfully pacing a chase while seemingly not playing a single shot in anger. Most notably, it will allay fears of an over-dependence on Fakhar Zaman up top if the middle order can find a way to stand up for itself more regularly, balancing Pakistan’s batting line-up ahead of the Champions Trophy.

But Pakistan’s death bowling remains a cause for concern. They conceded 98 in the final six overs against New Zealand, and 87 in the final seven on Wednesday against South Africa. On both occasions, one man in a purple patch took the attack to them – the fast bowlers in particular. It was Glenn Phillips one day, Heinrich Klaasen the next. It keeps New Zealand in the game till late, knowing they can catch up against a bowling line up that has revealed it it vulnerable.

New Zealand have just about played two perfect games, with control the key feature of their performances. There is a calm this side exudes when it appears a passage of play is going against them. They didn’t panic when they weren’t quite at the run rate they wanted to be against Pakistan until deep in the innings, keeping their ammunition dry until the opportunity to use it presented itself. When Matthew Breetzke took them on at the death, they retained their composure, aware the target was still below par, and then made short work of it with a near faultless chase.

Most notably, New Zealand have shown how to use spin as a leash for the opposition on these surfaces, and possess more experienced, more varied and, frankly, superior slower bowlers. Mitchell Santner has been in the middle of special run the last few months, and stifled Pakistan alongside Michael Bracewell, Phillips and Rachin Ravindra last week. They bowled 26 of the 47.5 overs through that innings, and while Pakistan’s spinners bowled a similar amount, they weren’t nearly as effective.

It is a game with silverware up for grabs, and the group-stage rubber between the two next week inflates its importance rather than diminishing it.

Form guide

Pakistan WLWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand WWLWW

In the spotlight: Fakhar Zaman and Kane Williamson

Fakhar Zaman‘s fireworks at the start have been integral to Pakistan’s hopes. When Zaman fell for a 69-ball 84 against New Zealand, Pakistan’s chase fell apart in Lahore, and his 28-ball 41 saw Pakistan fly to 91 in the first ten overs – their third fastest ten-over score in ODI history – against South Africa. It has gone some way towards replacing the hole left at the top by Saim Ayub’s injury, and given impetus to a side whose middle order doesn’t quite have the explosiveness to make up for any dawdling up top. On flat wickets where big totals will have to be put up and chased down, and with Fakhar key to Pakistan’s success in international tournament knockout games, his performance and the game’s outcome may well be very closely aligned.

Kane Williamson followed up a half-century against Pakistan with an unbeaten hundred to vanquish South Africa. New Zealand haven’t played too many ODIs since the 2023 World Cup, but he appears to have picked up where he left off, on surfaces that are perfectly suited to his immense ability. He showed in the first game he could grind it out on a “tackier wicket”, as he put it, while picking the pace up on the flatter surface against South Africa. His legendary unflappability has handled far bigger occasions, with his current form not just a warning sign for Pakistan, but every side he comes up against in the next few days.

Team news: Rachin Ravindra won’t be rushed back

With Haris Rauf unavailable, Pakistan are unlikely to tinker with the side that got them to the final barring injuries.

Pakistan (likely): 1 Fakhar Zaman, 2 Babar Azam, 3 Saud Shakeel, 4 Mohammad Rizwan (capt, wk), 5 Salman Agha, 6 Tayyab Tahir, 7 Khushdil Shah, 8 Shaheen Afridi, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Mohammad Hasnain, 11 Abrar Ahmed

*New Zealand coach Gary Stead said that Rachin Ravindra had experienced headaches after the blow to his head in the tri-series opening and though that has subsided, they don’t intend to rush him back into action, especially with his replacement Devon Conway filling in with aplomb. Fast bowler Lockie Ferguson, who had sustained a hamstring injury in the ILT20, has resumed training and is building up his intensity, with Stead saying that the team management will “look to have him playing in one of the next two games.”

New Zealand (probable): 1 Devon Conway, 2 Will Young, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Tom Latham/Mark Chapman, 6 Glenn Phillips, 7 Michael Bracewell, 8 Mitchell Santner (capt), 9 Ben Sears/Lockie Ferguson, 10 Matt Henry, 11 Will O’Rourke

Pitch and conditions

Karachi proved just as flat as Lahore on Wednesday, and the outfield was lightning quick, playing its part in the highest-scoring ODI in the previous game. It will be a warm, sunny day, with temperatures hitting up to 30 degrees.

Stats and trivia

Fakhar has scored 57, 114, 91, 55* and 0 in the five semi-final/final games he has played in white-ball international cricket. The first three went towards wins. Pakistan lost the other two.
Williamson became the fifth New Zealand batter to reach 7000 ODI runs on Monday, and is on the cusp of more run-scoring history: he is 148 away from becoming the first New Zealander to 19,000 international runs.
New Zealand have been in 12 finals of multi-team white-ball tournaments since 2000. Of these, they have won four and lost eight. What’s worrying is that the last of those wins came way back in 2005.

*5.10pm: The preview was updated after Gary Stead provided updates on the injuries of Rachin Ravindra and Lockie Ferguson

Danyal Rasool is ESPNcricinfo’s Pakistan correspondent. @Danny61000

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